Monday, July 20, 2009

False declaration or not?

I thought at the time that a few more runs were needed, as with overs to be made up there were 196 scheduled to be bowled, and with a victory target of 522 that equates to only 2.66 runs per over. At the rate the Aussies are scoring, 3.63, it would take only 143 overs or so to get there, meaning the Aussies would only need to bat out a day and a half to win the game, rather than survive the two days remaining in the match. Had Strauss batted on for another hour to reach a lead of 600, it would have meant the Aussies had to bat for longer to save or win the game. In fairness though England did bowl well in the morning session to take early wickets and perhaps the conditions flattened out after that so they did need to get Australia in quickly.

With 209 runs left to win, they will get there in around another 57 overs, quite possibly less if they really attack. So England need to effectively take 5 wickets in less than 2 sessions of play. This could well go down to the wire. Obviously a lot will depend on when the first wicket falls. And on the overhead conditions and whether the ball swings. An enthralling and nervous night's viewing awaits..

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