Not too many original comments to add on today's play. When the ball swings Australia do their ten pin falling over act. Graham Onions is a not to be underrated bowler, unlike Broad who may finally make way for Harmison in the next game at Headingley.
As for this match, with such a low first innings score there is time in hand for a result. If we make some rough napkin calculations:
England are 147 behind with 8 wickets in hand and 3 days left to play.
Let's do some rough napkin calculations. Let's assume England will reach a par score of roughly 360 in this innings, for a lead of 100, at their present run rate of 3.22 per over this will take a further 75 overs - leaving 215 overs left in the game. Note that in terms of there being a result in the game (either team winning) the score in their first innings doesn't really matter as they still have to bat again anyway - the runs they don't make in the first innings they can make in the 2nd innings and vice versa.
In terms of draw vs result the key will be how many runs Australia score in their 2nd innings. If they begin just after tea on day 3 there will be 2 days and a session left in the match. Let's assume they will score at their first innings run rate of 3.72 runs per over.
Bear in mind a day's play will now be 98 overs (usually 90) due to time having been lost. There are therefore a maximum of 290 overs left in this game, accounting for innings breaks.
Australia score 400 in 110 overs, setting a target of 300 with 105 overs left to play, a run rate required of just under 3 per over. It is a good wicket and England will fancy chasing this down with a long batting line up, however some time will likely be lost due to the weather with a lot of rain forecast for the next 3 days. Therefore this scenario will probably result in a draw.
Australia score 350 in 95 overs, setting a target of 250 with 120 overs left (4 sessions). England would only need about 2 sessions (60 overs) to chase this down if they bat well, so could afford for rain to wash away almost 2 further sessions. The difference between scenarios A and B that these extra 50 runs make could be vital.
Of course, let's say England collapse like Australia and are bowled out for just 260 in another 45 overs. Say conditions continue to suit bowling and Australia then score 260 again themselves (in 70 overs), leaving England 260 themselves to win (with potentially 175 overs remaining). This scenario would allow for up to 3 or 4 sessions to be washed out and would make a result quite likely.
Whatever England score in their first innings, Australia will probably only be safe in the game if they force England to aggregate over 4 runs per over in their 2 innings which would possibly be too hard:
If no further time is lost Aus score 500 (in 135 overs - leaving England to score a further aggregate of 650 in 155 overs in their 2 innings @ 4.2)
If 1 session is lost to rain a safe score might be 440 (in 120 overs - leaving England to score a further aggregate of 590 in 140 overs in their 2 innings @ 4.2)
If 2 sessions are lost a safe score might be 380 (in 100 overs - leaving England to score a further aggregate of 530 in 125 overs in their 2 innings @ 4.2)
If 3 sessions are lost a safe score might be 300 (in 80 overs - leaving England to score a further aggregate of 450 in 105 overs in their 2 innings @ 4.3)
If 4 sessions are lost a safe score might be 240 (in 65 overs - leaving England to score a further aggregate of 390 in 95 overs in their 2 innings @ 4.1)
If 5 sessions are lost a safe score might be 180 (in 50 overs - leaving England to score a further aggregate of 330 in 80 overs in their 2 innings @ 4.1)
If 2 whole days are lost Australia would not need to score much more than 100 because England will not bat fast enough in their first innings to build a lead and leave any time for a subsequent run chase - they are still 150 behind on their 1st innings.
All clear as mud? Thought as much :)